Doubt

January 23, 2009

Doubt (2008) ****
Directed by John Patrick Shanley

Thank God I didn’t see Doubt on my own. This screen adaptation of Shanley’s brilliant play leaves ultimate judgment in the hands of the audience, and as such, it’s almost necessary to discuss this film with others in order to truly articulate and appreciate the many possible conclusions one can reach after witnessing the battle that takes place between stubborn Sister Aloysius (Meryl Streep) and sketchy Father Flynn (Philip Seymour Hoffman).

Shanley’s dialogue is so wonderfully rich, filled with theatrical flourishes and romanticized symbolism. Unfortunately, not all of these stagy details translate successfully from stage to screen. Too often, something happens in a scene which is meant to add a layer of either suspense or atmosphere, but instead comes off manipulative and obvious. If one more light bulb burnt out, and if one more bird was shown, and if the wind blew one more time, I may have begun to dislike the film as a whole. Take, for example, a phone that rings right in the middle of a tense confrontation between Streep, Hoffman and Amy Adams, who plays innocent Sister James. Clearly meant to add dissonance in order to bring heightened tension, the loud ringing ultimately proves unnecessary and even distracting considering that the amazing performances by Streep and Hoffman during this encounter add just the right amount of anxiety. Further, there were a handful of moments when Shanley directs the camera to shoot scenes diagonally. Clearly meant to throw the viewer off balance, they instead took me completely out of the film.

Adams’ performance is too on the nose. Sister James is meant to be naïve, but I don’t think she’s meant to be Snow White. Hoffman is truly spectacular, owning the complicated dialogue and striking the perfect balance between cockiness and compassion which is imperative to the doubt which concludes the film. If The Dark Knight came out a different year, I believe that Hoffman would be the clear favorite to win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor.

No one has more on screen presence than Meryl Streep. When her character is fired up, she absolutely steals the show. Yet, I found her twitchiness during her calm moments a bit heavy handed. Overall, Streep’s performance works when it needs to, despite its unevenness.

Though not a commentary on Catholic priest sexual abuse as a whole, Doubt does focus on an accusation made against Father Flynn regarding this very subject. Viola Davis plays the mother of the alleged victim. You’d think that her character would be outraged and disgusted by what is supposedly happening to her son. Well, that’s not at all what you get with this character. I won’t give away anything more except to say that Shanley takes one of the biggest risks I’ve ever seen by choosing to have the mother react in the way she does. Had he and Davis not presented this character correctly, the entire film could have imploded. Davis, though only in one substantial scene, gives one of the very best performances of the year. Though I’m still rooting for Marissa Tomei for The Wreslter to win Best Supporting Actress, I’d still be thrilled if Davis goes home with the Oscar.

Doubt is a frustrating emotion, and surely Shanley’s film will leave many frustrated. Again, I must point out how wonderfully ballsy Doubt truly is. Though the dialogue probably works better as a play than a film, it’s still powerfully infuriating, and that’s a huge compliment!

Five Short Reviews #4

January 23, 2009

Mamma Mia! (2008) **1/2

Directed by Phyllida Lloyd

In the 1990s, the integrity of the Broadway musical was severely compromised when the motivating factor behind the creation of new musicals was solely about making money and not at all about quality. When the stage version of Beauty and the Beast became a huge hit, Disney wasted little time adapting some of their other cartoon musicals into big budget stage shows. Some worked (The Lion King), while others tanked (Tarzan).

The days of Les Miserables and Andrew Lloyd Webber were over when Mamma Mia opened, showcasing the mainstream pop songs of the 70s Swedish group Abba. Audiences loved it, and more importantly, it was a huge financial success. The pathetic genre of what I like to call “Revue Musicals” was born. Other artists followed, similarly manufacturing plots as an excuse to have singers and dancers perform their songs on the Broadway stage. I absolutely love musicals, but I have no desire whatsoever to see any “revue musicals” on stage since I hold firm to the philosophy that the Broadway musical ought to rise above prostitution for profits.

Knowing that I would never witness Mamma Mia on stage, I was interested to see whether or not the film version might make me rethink these “revue musicals.” It did not. The songs, which were not originally written to tell a cohesive story, too often come off like bad karaoke sung by untrained Hollywood actors including Meryl Streep, Julie Walters, Christine Baranski, Colin Firth, Stellan Skarsgard and bland newcomer Amanda Seyfried. Then there’s Pierce Brosnan whose singing voice makes Roseanne Barr sound like Aretha Franklin.

The running time is less than two hours. My understanding is that the stage show is over two and a half hours long, which is common for a Broadway musical. Cutting dialogue from the musical hurt the film, resulting in song after contrived song being hurled at the audience nonstop.

Yet, there’s a level of perkiness and fun that makes Mamma Mia adequate escapist entertainment. Streep commands every scene she’s in, and as a result, the film’s cohesion successfully rests comfortably on her shoulders. A lesser celebrity in the role may very well have destroyed the film’s integrity completely.

Mamma Mia provides a good time for those that are willing to go along for the ride. I was entertained, but just barely. Still, though, I stand firm in stating that shows like Mamma Mia have done significant damage to the progression of the Broadway musical, and that is an abomination!

Labels: 2008, Two and a Half Stars, Musical

My Winnipeg (2008) *****

Directed by Guy Maddin

There are documentaries and there are fiction films, right? Documents of real life verses fabricated narratives meant to entertain, correct? Well, the wall has been torn down between these two seemingly mutually exclusive genres of film, and the one responsible for the destruction is Guy Maddin, that quirky, artsy Canadian auteur whose film My Winnipeg completely blurs the lines between reality and fantasy.

As a man of over fifty years, Maddin returns to his childhood city in order to process the transformations that have occurred in the decades since. Yet, this is not a movie about Winnipeg; it is about Maddin himself and the psycho-sexual Freudian issues that he clearly wrestles with everyday. Whenever details from his youth no longer exist as they do in Maddin’s psyche, we witness the existential crises that result which are manifested in visually provocative ways.

Part frenetic documentary and part new age fable, My Winnipeg is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. What makes it rise above mere pretension is the emotional truth that inhabits every frame and sequence from beginning to end. There seems to be little excess that doesn’t serve the purpose of conveying a certain type of longing or frustration. My Winnipeg has to be the most satisfying cinematic therapy session I’ve ever sat through!

Labels: 2008, Five Stars, Documentary, Drama

Kill Bill: Vol. 1 (2003) *****

Directed by Quentin Tarantino

Tarantino is awesome! Kill Bill satisfies many different lusts—blood lust, lust for action, lust for life, lust for film. On the one hand, the first volume of Kill Bill is an homage to the great Japanese samurai films from the 70s which Tarantino clearly worships, and yet, Kill Bill is specifically modern in its desire to push the boundaries of violence by today’s jaded standards.

Uma Thurman gives what will most likely be the performance of her career as The Bride, a gunshot and rape victim who journeys all the way to Japan and back in order to seek gory revenge on her assailants. After quickly disposing of Vernita Green (Vivica A. Fox), the first of four on her list, The Bride hunts down O-Ren Ishii (Lucy Liu) who has become the head of the most dangerous underground crime organization in Japan. The sword fight sequence that ensues is one of the most satisfying I’ve ever seen. At one point, in order to avoid an NC-17 rating, Tarantino switches over to black and white, copying a technique used in order to tame violent films in the 70s when they were shown on television. By the end of the sword fight, I was exhausted, but I had a huge smile on my face. The only thing missing was a cigarette to smoke! Early on, a brutal flashback occurs in anime so that all of the blood and carnage can be displayed without depressing the viewer.

Volume one supplies just as much substance as style, making it one of the truly great filmgoing experiences. Its pitch black humor provides an accessibility which the gore almost negates. Though it only provides the first half of the Kill Bill saga, Volume One is a masterpiece all by itself.

Labels: 2003, Five Stars, Quentin Tarantino Mini-Marathon, Action

Old School (2003) *1/2

Directed by Todd Phillips

Old School is barely a film. It’s a bunch of sporadically clever one-liners and lame sight gags held together by a plot stolen straight from Animal House, except this time, the fraternity is run by three men in their thirties.

I barely laughed.

Old School has become a cultural institution as one of the most quoted and revered of all Will Ferrell comedies. I suppose I can understand its appeal on that level. Maybe if I found friends to watch it with repeatedly and maybe if I referenced the film ad nauseum, I might share in the collective affection that’s out there. After one viewing, however, I was disappointed and bored. Why should I put effort into liking a film that I didn’t find pleasurable at all?

Labels: 2003, One and a Half Stars, Wiseguy DB Marathon, Comedy

Funny Games (2008) ***1/2

Directed by Michael Haneke

The American version of Funny Games with Naomi Watts, Tim Roth, Michael Pitt and Brady Corbet is an almost shot for shot remake of Haneke’s Austrian film from 1997 of the same name. Even though I really enjoyed this newer version, I’m compelled to ask, “What’s the point of making an exact replica of any movie?” Perhaps the sermonizing that Haneke may or may not be employing in Funny Games deserves to be flung at a different culture at a different time. This explanation doesn't work for me since I don't believe he's seriously trying to teach any lessons at all. It's a wonderful elaborate hoax that so many have bought into in order to criticize the so-called "hypocrisy" of Haneke himself.

That being said, Funny Games is a fascinating, off-beat horror flick that seemingly attempts to comment on genre films known for employing brutal violence and disregard for human life in order to entertain their bloodthirsty audiences. I’m using the language and tone that I feel many think Haneke himself would employ based on the nature of the film itself.

Just when we are given a moment of relief from the oppressive evil sprawled out on screen, Haneke employs Brechtian techniques through Michael Pitt’s character, including breaking the fourth wall, in order to tease us before adding another layer of sweat-inducing terror.

Funny Games plays more like a thesis than an actual movie, and on that level, it works, as long as the preaching about violence in film is truly intended as tongue and cheek, which I believe it to be. Haneke is known for using graphic and shocking violence in films like Cache, so he’s obviously not serious or else you’d think he would practice what he preaches.

Therefore, it’s best to just experience Funny Games from an arms length and not engage with its false ethical posturing. It’s impeccably well directed, immensely suspenseful, profoundly disturbing, and—dare I say it—a lot of fun to watch!

Labels: 2008, Three and a Half Stars, Horror

The Academy Award Nominations

January 22, 2009

The Academy Award Nominations

I’m tempted to erase my post predicting the Oscar nominees since I didn’t get all five correct in any category. There’s even one nominee that I didn’t have anywhere on my radar screen (Michael Shannon- Revolutionary Road).

The Dark Knight was shut out of all major categories other than Ledger’s sure to win performance as The Joker. The one consolation I can cling to is the fact that I did single out Stephen Daldry as a director to pay attention to. This is his third nomination for Best Director, and The Reader is only his fourth film! I don’t think anyone believed that The Reader would pick up a Best Picture nomination. I plan to watch the film tonight, so we shall see if this surprise choice is an inspired one!

Benjamin Button with 13 nominations??? Excuse me while I cry in my Cheerios!

Here are all of the nominees:

Performance by an actor in a leading role

• Richard Jenkins in “The Visitor” (Overture Films)
• Frank Langella in “Frost/Nixon” (Universal)
• Sean Penn in “Milk” (Focus Features)
• Brad Pitt in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
• Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

Performance by an actor in a supporting role

• Josh Brolin in “Milk” (Focus Features)
• Robert Downey Jr. in “Tropic Thunder” (DreamWorks, Distributed by DreamWorks/Paramount)
• Philip Seymour Hoffman in “Doubt” (Miramax)
• Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.)
• Michael Shannon in “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage)

Performance by an actress in a leading role

• Anne Hathaway in “Rachel Getting Married” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Angelina Jolie in “Changeling” (Universal)
• Melissa Leo in “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics)
• Meryl Streep in “Doubt” (Miramax)
• Kate Winslet in “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company)

Performance by an actress in a supporting role

• Amy Adams in “Doubt” (Miramax)
• Penélope Cruz in “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” (The Weinstein Company)
• Viola Davis in “Doubt” (Miramax)
• Taraji P. Henson in “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.)
• Marisa Tomei in “The Wrestler” (Fox Searchlight)

Best animated feature film of the year

• “Bolt” (Walt Disney), Chris Williams and Byron Howard
• “Kung Fu Panda” (DreamWorks Animation, Distributed by Paramount), John Stevenson and Mark Osborne
• “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Andrew Stanton

Achievement in art direction

• “Changeling” (Universal), Art Direction: James J. Murakami, Set Decoration: Gary Fettis
• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Donald Graham Burt, Set Decoration: Victor J. Zolfo
• “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Art Direction: Nathan Crowley, Set Decoration: Peter Lando
• “The Duchess” (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films), Art Direction: Michael Carlin, Set Decoration: Rebecca Alleway
• “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage), Art Direction: Kristi Zea, Set Decoration: Debra Schutt

Achievement in cinematography

• “Changeling” (Universal), Tom Stern
• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Claudio Miranda
• “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Wally Pfister
• “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Chris Menges and Roger Deakins
• “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Anthony Dod Mantle

Achievement in costume design

• “Australia” (20th Century Fox), Catherine Martin
• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Jacqueline West
• “The Duchess” (Paramount Vantage, Pathé and BBC Films), Michael O’Connor
• “Milk” (Focus Features), Danny Glicker
• “Revolutionary Road” (DreamWorks, Distributed by Paramount Vantage), Albert Wolsky

Achievement in directing

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Fincher
• “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Ron Howard
• “Milk” (Focus Features), Gus Van Sant
• “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Stephen Daldry
• “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Danny Boyle

Best documentary feature

• “The Betrayal (Nerakhoon)” (Cinema Guild), A Pandinlao Films Production, Ellen Kuras and Thavisouk Phrasavath
• “Encounters at the End of the World” (THINKFilm and Image Entertainment), A Creative Differences Production, Werner Herzog and Henry Kaiser
• “The Garden” A Black Valley Films Production, Scott Hamilton Kennedy
• “Man on Wire” (Magnolia Pictures), A Wall to Wall Production, James Marsh and Simon Chinn
• “Trouble the Water” (Zeitgeist Films), An Elsewhere Films Production, Tia Lessin and Carl Deal

Best documentary short subject

• “The Conscience of Nhem En” A Farallon Films Production, Steven Okazaki
• “The Final Inch” A Vermilion Films Production, Irene Taylor Brodsky and Tom Grant
• “Smile Pinki” A Principe Production, Megan Mylan
• “The Witness - From the Balcony of Room 306” A Rock Paper Scissors Production, Adam Pertofsky and Margaret Hyde

Achievement in film editing

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Kirk Baxter and Angus Wall
• “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Lee Smith
• “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Mike Hill and Dan Hanley
• “Milk” (Focus Features), Elliot Graham
• “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Chris Dickens

Best foreign language film of the year

• “The Baader Meinhof Complex” A Constantin Film Production, Germany
• “The Class” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Haut et Court Production, France
• “Departures” (Regent Releasing), A Departures Film Partners Production, Japan
• “Revanche” (Janus Films), A Prisma Film/Fernseh Production, Austria
• “Waltz with Bashir” (Sony Pictures Classics), A Bridgit Folman Film Gang Production, Israel

Achievement in makeup

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Greg Cannom
• “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), John Caglione, Jr. and Conor O’Sullivan
• “Hellboy II: The Golden Army” (Universal), Mike Elizalde and Thom Floutz

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original score)

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Alexandre Desplat
• “Defiance” (Paramount Vantage), James Newton Howard
• “Milk” (Focus Features), Danny Elfman
• “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), A.R. Rahman
• “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Thomas Newman

Achievement in music written for motion pictures (Original song)

• “Down to Earth” from “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Music by Peter Gabriel and Thomas Newman, Lyric by Peter Gabriel
• “Jai Ho” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music by A.R. Rahman, Lyric by Gulzar
• “O Saya” from “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Music and Lyric by A.R. Rahman and Maya Arulpragasam

Best motion picture of the year

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), A Kennedy/Marshall Production, Kathleen Kennedy, Frank Marshall and Ceán Chaffin, Producers
• “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), A Universal Pictures, Imagine Entertainment and Working Title Production, Brian Grazer, Ron Howard and Eric Fellner, Producers
• “Milk” (Focus Features), A Groundswell and Jinks/Cohen Company Production, Dan Jinks and Bruce Cohen, Producers
• “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), A Mirage Enterprises and Neunte Babelsberg Film GmbH Production, Nominees to be determined
• “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), A Celador Films Production, Christian Colson, Producer

Best animated short film

• “La Maison en Petits Cubes” A Robot Communications Production, Kunio Kato
• “Lavatory - Lovestory” A Melnitsa Animation Studio and CTB Film Company Production, Konstantin Bronzit
• “Oktapodi” (Talantis Films), A Gobelins, L’école de l’image Production, Emud Mokhberi and Thierry Marchand
• “Presto” (Walt Disney), A Pixar Animation Studios Production, Doug Sweetland
• “This Way Up” A Nexus Production, Alan Smith and Adam Foulkes

Best live action short film

• “Auf der Strecke (On the Line)” (Hamburg Shortfilmagency), An Academy of Media Arts Cologne Production, Reto Caffi
• “Manon on the Asphalt” (La Luna Productions), A La Luna Production, Elizabeth Marre and Olivier Pont
• “New Boy” (Network Ireland Television), A Zanzibar Films Production, Steph Green and Tamara Anghie
• “The Pig” An M & M Production, Tivi Magnusson and Dorte Høgh
• “Spielzeugland (Toyland)” A Mephisto Film Production, Jochen Alexander Freydank

Achievement in sound editing

• “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Richard King
• “Iron Man” (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment), Frank Eulner and Christopher Boyes
• “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Tom Sayers
• “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Ben Burtt and Matthew Wood
• “Wanted” (Universal), Wylie Stateman

Achievement in sound mixing

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), David Parker, Michael Semanick, Ren Klyce and Mark Weingarten
• “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Lora Hirschberg, Gary Rizzo and Ed Novick
• “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Ian Tapp, Richard Pryke and Resul Pookutty
• “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Tom Myers, Michael Semanick and Ben Burtt
• “Wanted” (Universal), Chris Jenkins, Frank A. Montaño and Petr Forejt

Achievement in visual effects

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Eric Barba, Steve Preeg, Burt Dalton and Craig Barron
• “The Dark Knight” (Warner Bros.), Nick Davis, Chris Corbould, Tim Webber and Paul Franklin
• “Iron Man” (Paramount and Marvel Entertainment), John Nelson, Ben Snow, Dan Sudick and Shane Mahan

Adapted screenplay

• “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” (Paramount and Warner Bros.), Screenplay by Eric Roth, Screen story by Eric Roth and Robin Swicord
• “Doubt” (Miramax), Written by John Patrick Shanley
• “Frost/Nixon” (Universal), Screenplay by Peter Morgan
• “The Reader” (The Weinstein Company), Screenplay by David Hare
• “Slumdog Millionaire” (Fox Searchlight), Screenplay by Simon Beaufoy

Original screenplay

• “Frozen River” (Sony Pictures Classics), Written by Courtney Hunt
• “Happy-Go-Lucky” (Miramax), Written by Mike Leigh
• “In Bruges” (Focus Features), Written by Martin McDonagh
• “Milk” (Focus Features), Written by Dustin Lance Black
• “WALL-E” (Walt Disney), Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Original story by Andrew Stanton, Pete Docter

My Oscar Nomination Predictions

January 21, 2009

My Oscar Nomination Predictions

Tomorrow morning (or later this morning if I don’t post this within the next half hour), the Oscar nominations will be announced. I’m not going to predict the nominees in every category (Documentary Short Subject will be a real barn burner I’m sure), but I would like to predict what actors, directors and films I believe will be announced in just a few short hours.

Best Supporting Actor
Josh Brolin- Milk
Robert Downey, Jr.- Tropic Thunder
Philip Seymour Hoffman- Doubt
Heath Ledger- The Dark Knight
Dev Patel- Slumdog Millionaire

(Outside chance- Ralph Fiennes- The Duchess)

(Long shots- Eddie Marsan- Happy-Go-Lucky, Tom Cruise- Tropic Thunder, John Malkovich- Burn After Reading, Aaron Eckhart- The Dark Knight, James Franco- Milk)

I think Hoffman, Ledger and Brolin are locks. Downey deserves the nomination, and he’s well respected by actors so I think his name will be announced. Dev Patel is the underdog. Personally, I don’t think he deserves the nomination, but Slumdog Millionaire has all the momentum in the world going for it right now. The cast of the film as a whole does fine work, and Patel will be their representative as a nominee. Fiennes’ performance is excellent in a movie that’s not. Still, though, he’s Ralph Fiennes, so do not count him out. By the way, the other four nominees don’t even have to attend the Oscars because Heath Ledger will win. It’s a lock. Oh yeah, it’s well deserved too!

Best Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz- Vicky Cristina Barcelona
Viola Davis- Doubt
Rosemarie DeWitt- Rachel Getting Married
Marissa Tomei- The Wrestler
Kate Winslet- The Reader

(Outside chance- Taraji P. Henson- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, Amy Adams- Doubt)

(Long shots- Frieda Pinto- Slumdog Millionaire, Evan Rachel Wood- The Wrestler, Frances McDormand- Burn After Reading, Misty Upham- Frozen River)

First of all, the long shots are especially long in this category. I think it’s between seven women, and there’s a good chance that both Henson and Adams will be nominated, especially considering that both were SAG nominees and Adams was a Globe nominee. However, I’ve heard great praise for DeWitt in Rachel Getting Married, and I’ve heard that Adams’ performance is a bit irritating in Doubt. In my opinion, Henson doesn’t deserve the nomination. Maybe it’s wishful thinking, but my guess is that their names will not be called. Cruz, Davis and Winslet are locks, and Tomei is pretty much a given as well. Though she has been nominated since her controversial win for My Cousin Vinny, there’s still the fact that her win for My Cousin Vinny was in fact controversial. I loved her performance in The Wrestler, so I’m hoping she will get the nom. Also, she’s topless for most of the movie, and actors probably will want to reward her courage.

Best Actor
Clint Eastwood- Gran Torino
Richard Jenkins- The Visitor
Frank Langella- Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn- Milk
Mickey Rourke- The Wrestler

(Outside (or inside) chance- Brad Pitt- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)

(Long shots- Leonardo DiCaprio- Revolutionary Road, Josh Brolin- W., Colin Ferrell- In Bruges, Michael Sheen- Frost/Nixon, Philip Seymour Hoffman- Synecdoche, New York, Benecio Del Toro- Che)

DiCaprio is a great actor and his performance in Revolutionary Road has moments of greatness. Yet his chances are 1 in 100 for a nomination. Del Toro’s is probably 1 in 250. Sheen’s is maybe 1 in 500. The others in the long shot section are somewhere in the 1 in 1000 range. It’s totally between six men, and I know it’s strange, but I’m sort of betting against myself here. I do think Pitt will probably get the nomination, and Jenkins will not. I guess I’m just hoping that voters will agree with me that Pitt is terrible in Benjamin Button, and therefore, maybe enough voters won’t include him. Personally, I think Eastwood has a better chance than most people think. He’s great in Gran Torino, and his performance is so damn endearing. Since it’s well-known that this is his acting swan song, people will ultimately be drawn to write Eastwood on their ballots. Langella, Penn and Rourke have already bought their tuxes I’m sure.

Best Actress
Anne Hathaway- Rachel Getting Married
Sally Hawkins- Happy-Go-Lucky
Angelina Jolie- Changeling
Meryl Streep- Doubt
Kate Winslet- Revolutionary Road

(Outside chance- Melissa Leo- Frozen River)

(Long shots- Michelle Williams- Wendy and Lucy, Kristen Scott Thomas- I’ve Loved You So Long, Rebecca Hall- Vicky Cristina Barcelona, Kate Beckinsale- Nothing but the Truth, Meryl Streep- Mamma Mia!, Kate Beckinsale- Snow Angels, Kiera Knightly, The Duchess, Cate Blanchett- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button)

There are quite a few possibilities that could surprise people in this category. I think Williams and Blanchett have a fighting chance, as do Kristen Scott Thomas and Beckinsale for Nothing but the Truth. Hathaway, Streep and Winslet are locks, but the battle for the last two slots will be almost evenly spread among three actresses—Jolie, Hawkins and Leo. I’m going to give the slight edge to Jolie who really is a great actress, and I’m going to go way out on a limb here and say that she might just have more name recognition than Sally Hawkins and Melissa Leo. Out of the two, take your pick. Since Hawkins won the Globe, Happy-Go-Lucky came out later in the year than Frozen River, and the character she plays is more endearing than Leo’s, I’ll expect to hear her name announced.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky- The Wrestler
Danny Boyle- Slumdog Millionaire
Christopher Nolan- The Dark Knight
David Fincher- The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Gus Van Sant- Milk

(Outside chance- Ron Howard- Frost/Nixon)

(Long shots- Stephen Daldry- The Reader, Sam Mendes- Revolutionary Road, Clint Eastwood- Changeling, Clint Eastwood- Gran Torino, Steven Soderberg- Che, Woody Allen- Vicky Cristina Barcelona, John Patrick Shanley- Doubt, Andrew Stanton- WALL-E, Tarsem- The Fall, Jonathan Demme- Rachel Getting Married)

I’ll probably regret not including Howard but I have my reasons. First of all, the buzz surrounding Frost/Nixon came and went very quickly. Also, this year’s Best Director category, in my opinion, is going to be a platform to reward five exceptionally well-respected relatively off-beat directors who have made revered movies in the past that haven’t been honored with nominations. (Aronofsky- Requiem for a Dream, Boyle- Trainspotting, Nolan- Memento, Fincher- Fight Club, Van Sant- his experimental films) However, Aronofsky and Nolan are far from locks. The Wrestler, as a film, might not garner the same love that its two featured actors will undoubtedly receive. The Dark Knight hasn’t done much on the awards circuit which certainly makes Nolan far from a lock for a nomination. Daldry might just hear his name called considering that first of all, he was nominated for a Globe, and second, with the exception of a movie I’ve never heard of called Eight, Daldry has received a Best Director nomination for every film he’s directed so far! Granted he’s only directed two before The Reader and after Eight (Billy Elliot and The Hours), but he’s got a streak that deserves notice. Revolutionary Road was not well-received, but it’s an exceptionally well directed film, so Mendes certainly has a shot. The Academy does love Clint, that’s for sure. Yet, Changeling disappointed many, and Gran Torino is not in the same league as the other films in terms of its directorial scope. If I’m right in this category, I’m going to get very cocky cause I really think I’m going to hang my head in shame for leaving Howard out.

Best Picture
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Frost/Nixon
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire
The Wrestler

(Outside chance- The Dark Knight)

(Long shots- The Reader, Doubt, WALL-E, Rachel Getting Married, Revolutionary Road, Gran Torino, Che)

I hate to include Benjamin Button in this one, but I think it’s an impressive enough movie on a technical level to receive many votes. Also, lots of people liked it much more than I did. Yet, I think it has no chance at all of winning. Like I said before, The Dark Knight does not have the awards momentum on its side. Therefore, I don’t expect it will be nominated. It’s still got a chance considering that The Wrestler is one of those films that might not connect with older Academy voters as much as the other four probable nominees. Also, The Dark Knight didn’t do too shabby at the box office! If neither The Wrestler nor The Dark Knight receive a nomination, and keeping in mind that WALL-E never really had a chance from the start considering that now there’s an Animated Picture category, look out for an upset by Doubt or Revolutionary Road since both are ultra-intense dramas with the very highest pedigree of actors in their casts.

The nominations will be announced early this morning, January 22^nd. Come back later today to see the nominations!