My Oscar Nomination Predictions

January 24, 2011

The Oscar nominations will be announced early tomorrow morning. I predict The Social Network and The King's Speech will be the two top films in terms of number of nominations. For the third year, I am going to predict what films will receive nominations in the major categories, and once again, for the third year, I am going to prove how bad I am at this.

Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale- The Fighter
Andrew Garfield- The Social Network
John Hawkes- Winter's Bone
Mark Ruffalo- The Kids Are All Right
Geoffrey Rush- The King's Speech

(Outside chance- Jeremy Renner- The Town)

(Long shots- Matt Damon- True Grit, Michael Douglas- Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps, Vincent Cassel- Black Swan, Guy Pierce- The King's Speech)

The biggest wild card for this one will be John Hawkes. He's better than Renner in a better film, but will voters remember Hawkes' performance considering that he's overshadowed by Jennifer Lawrence's impressive turn? Also, Renner is a better known entity than Hawkes. Don't count out Globe nominee Douglas. He's got a lot of good will on his side, but the fact that Wall Street 2 is crap won't help. I think it's between six men for the nomination, though this is Christian Bale's award to ultimately take home.

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams- The Fighter
Helena Bonham-Carter- The King's Speech
Mila Kunis- Black Swan
Melissa Leo- The Fighter
Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit

(Outside chance- Jacki Weaver- Animal Kingdom)

(Long shots- Leslie Manville- Another Year, Barbara Hershey- Black Swan, Dianne Weist- Rabbit Hole, Noomi Rapace- The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo, Julianne Moore- The Kids Are All Right)

The supporting categories tend to be difficult to predict because it's not always clear whether a performance is a lead or supporting one. This might be the issue with Steinfeld, who might be nominated as lead actress or who might not be nominated at all because she will split votes in the two categories. Same goes for Rapace and Moore. I don't think Rapace has much of a shot for a nomination at all, but Moore might have enough votes in the supporting category to be a surprise nominee, though I truly doubt it. That fifth slot, if Steinfeld isn't nominated, is pretty close between Weaver and Manville. I'm giving the edge to Weaver because it's a heavier performance. Still, though, I expect Steinfeld to make it in as a supporting actress. The nominations will be key to who will emerge as the favorite to win. If Steinfeld is nominated, I think she might be the favorite. Otherwise, I think it will be Leo that will take home the award.

Best Actor
Jeff Bridges- True Grit
Jesse Eisenberg- The Social Network
Colin Firth- The King's Speech
James Franco- 127 Hours
Ryan Gosling- Blue Valentine

(Outside chance- Robert Duvall- Get Low)

(Long shots- Mark Wahlberg- The Fighter, Aaron Eckhart- Rabbit Hole, Leonardo DiCaprio- Inception, Leonardo DiCaprio- Shutter Island)

I'd be thrilled to have Leo DiCaprio sneak in with a much deserved nomination for Inception, but I don't think it's going to happen. Robert Duvall is apparently great in Get Low, but will people remember the film when they vote, especially considering Duvall's overall lack of awards momentum for the role? I still think Wahlberg has a chance. I thought he was quite good giving a humble performance in The Fighter, but others see his humility as dullness, so that might work against him. Bridges is not a lock considering that he's not as flashy as Wayne was in the same role in 1969. Gosling and Eckhart have their better female counterparts in Michelle Williams and Nicole Kidman overshadowing them which might hurt. That being said, I think Bridges and Gosling will be nominated. Both True Grit and Blue Valentine have a lot more acting good will than Rabbit Hole and Inception. If there's a surprise tomorrow morning, though, it might just be in this category.

Best Actress
Annette Bening- The Kids Are All Right
Nicole Kidman- Rabbit Hole
Jennifer Lawrence- Winter's Bone
Natalie Portman- Black Swan
Michelle Williams- Blue Valentine

(Outside chance- Hailee Steinfeld- True Grit)

(Long shots- Julianne Moore- The Kids Are All Right, Carey Mulligan- Never Let Me Go, Kim Hye-Ja- Mother, Noomi Rapace- The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo)

Don't count out Julianne Moore in this category, especially if Steinfeld receives a supporting nomination, which I think she will. That being said, I'm most confident about my predictions in this category. I absolutely think these five ladies will be nominated.

Best Director
Darren Aronofsky- Black Swan
David Fincher- The Social Network
Tom Hooper- The King's Speech
Christopher Nolan- Inception
David O. Russell- The Fighter

(Outside chance- Danny Boyle- 127 Hours)

(Long shots- Lisa Cholodenko- The Kids Are All Right, Joel & Ethan Coen- True Grit, Ben Affleck- The Town, Debra Granik- Winter's Bone)

Nolan is the wild card here. He wasn't nominated for The Dark Knight, so should I take that as a sign that he similarly won't be nominated again or that he will be nominated partially to make up for that oversight? I do think the film stands on its own as being a real directorial achievement, so I expect him to be nominated. I don't think 127 Hours will get a great deal of votes in any category, though I'm about to predict that it will be nominated for Best Picture, but I wouldn't be surprised if it gets 9th or 10th place on that list. Don't count out the Coens. Okay, actually, yeah, you can pretty much count out the Coens. Many think True Grit is one of their weaker efforts, and though it will be nominated for Best Picture, I think many voters will be conflicted at the prospect of nominating them for Best Director. I think the five men I predicted will be announced. I feel good about these choices.

Best Picture
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King's Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter's Bone

(Outside chance- The Town)

(Long shots- Blue Valentine, How to Train Your Dragon, Rabbit Hole, Shutter Island, The Ghost Writer)

Considering I only got 7 out of 10 nominees correct last time, I wouldn't put your money on my predictions. That being said, I think I'll get at least nine out of 10 correct. I wouldn't be surprised to see The Town nominated. I don't think any of the other long shots have much of a shot. Some have predicted Shutter Island, but I think too many were disappointed by it for it to sneak in. The best shot out of the long shots is the painfully mediocre film How to Train Your Dragon. If The Town sneaks in, which film will it replace? I think 127 Hours, The Kids Are All Right, Winter's Bone and Inception are all far from locks so any one of those might not get the nomination. I think The Kids Are All Right is perhaps the film that has the best chance of the four of being left out. Still, I think (or at least I hope) I'll make up for my failures last year in this category.

I'll post the nominees on my blog tomorrow.